The mere expectation or rumor of a central bank foreign exchange intervention might be enough to stabilize the currency. However, aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 European Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse, and in more recent times in Asia.
Imagine a trader who expects interest rates to rise in the U.S. compared to Australia while the exchange rate between the two currencies (AUD/USD) is 0.71 (it takes $0.71 USD to buy $1.00 AUD). The trader believes higher interest rates in the U.S. will increase demand for USD, and therefore the AUD/USD exchange rate will fall because it will require fewer, stronger USD to buy an AUD.
The forex market uses symbols to designate specific currency pairs. The euro is symbolized by EUR, the U.S. dollar is USD, so the euro/U.S. dollar pair is shown as EUR/USD. Other commonly traded currency symbols include AUD (Australian dollar), GBP (British pound), CHF (Swiss franc), CAD (Canadian dollar), NZD (New Zealand dollar), and JPY (Japanese yen).
It’s great having an effective once a day trading method and system. However, even a consistent strategy can go wrong when confronted with the unusual volume and volatility seen on specific days. For example, public holidays such as Christmas and New Year, or days with significant breaking news events, can open you up to unpredictable price fluctuations.
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Currency prices are constantly moving, so the trader may decide to hold the position overnight. The broker will rollover the position, resulting in a credit or debit based on the interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the U.S. If the Eurozone has an interest rate of 4% and the U.S. has an interest rate of 3%, the trader owns the higher interest rate currency because they bought EUR. Therefore, at rollover, the trader should receive a small credit. If the EUR interest rate was lower than the USD rate then the trader would be debited at rollover.
Foreign exchange fixing is the daily monetary exchange rate fixed by the national bank of each country. The idea is that central banks use the fixing time and exchange rate to evaluate the behavior of their currency. Fixing exchange rates reflect the real value of equilibrium in the market. Banks, dealers, and traders use fixing rates as a market trend indicator.
In the futures market, futures contracts are bought and sold based upon a standard size and settlement date on public commodities markets, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In the U.S., the National Futures Association regulates the futures market. Futures contracts have specific details, including the number of units being traded, delivery and settlement dates, and minimum price increments that cannot be customized. The exchange acts as a counterpart to the trader, providing clearance and settlement.